US tariffs one year on: what changed for Brazilian exporters

When the additional United States tariffs on Brazilian products came into force in August 2025, the market's first reaction was paralysis. Shipments were suspended, contracts renegotiated, and a lot of people decided to "wait and see". A year later the picture is different: trade did not stop, it reorganised itself. And the companies that moved first are the ones collecting the results.

What actually happened to the flows

A significant share of Brazilian exports to the US remained protected by sector exemptions, particularly in aerospace, energy, orange juice, cellulose pulp and some industrial inputs. For everything else, the effect was a competitiveness shock that pushed exporters down three roads: absorbing margin, redirecting to other markets or redesigning the chain with production stages outside Brazil.

In our own operation we have seen a steady rise in enquiries about Mexico, Canada, the European Union and the Gulf states. That is no coincidence: these are markets with trade agreements in force or under ratification, stable demand and mature logistics infrastructure.

Our view: diversification stopped being a talking point

For years, "diversify your markets" was a conference slogan. The tariff package turned it into a survival requirement. The good news is that Brazil currently has a rare window: the Mercosur-European Union agreement advancing through ratification, Chinese demand for protein and grain still strong, and an exchange rate that, volatile as it is, favours exporters for most of the year.

Three decisions that separate those who grew from those who stalled

1. Review tariff classification and origin. Many companies discovered that part of their portfolio fell outside the tariff scope, or could fall outside it with legitimate adjustments to the production process. That takes technical analysis, not guesswork.
2. Swap "freight cost" for "total cost to serve". Longer routes to Europe or Asia may carry higher freight and still deliver a better margin once you add tariff, payment terms and currency risk.
3. Negotiate Incoterms deliberately. Selling CIF or DAP instead of FOB gives the exporter control over transport and often a commercial advantage the buyer values more than a price discount.

What to expect over the coming months

We work on the assumption that American tariff policy will continue to be used as a negotiating instrument, with advances and reversals. That means planning around a single scenario is a mistake. We advise our clients to keep at least two active logistics designs per product family and to review their market matrix every quarter.

Tariffs are negotiated in Brasília and Washington. Competitiveness is built in the warehouse, at the port and in the contract.

If your company is still operating on the pre-2025 model, this is the moment to map alternatives. TMLOG runs that diagnosis using data from your own operation: tariff codes, volumes, routes and real costs.